Bitcoin2026-09-11 21:22:59CoinShares says hotter core inflation may cap Bitcoin near term, while failed Treasury buybacks could strengthen the medium-term caseBitcoin faces a split macro setup, according to a Friday note from CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill. He said stronger-than-expected U.S. core inflation raises the chances of tighter Federal Reserve policy and may keep Bitcoin below $80,000 in the near term. Friday’s data showed the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in August from a month earlier, above expectations, while CME’s FedWatch tool showed traders assigning an 85% probability that rates will be higher after next week’s Fed meeting. Butterfill’s longer-range view hinges on the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback program. He argued the expanded effort has not materially pushed down long-end yields. If those yields remain elevated, pressure could build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to move toward a much larger buying program designed to force borrowing costs lower. In Butterfill’s view, that kind of escalation could become a significant medium-term catalyst for Bitcoin and reinforce the debasement trade that has also supported gold. The article was first published by Bitcoin Magazine and written by Mathew Di Salvo.1120
Pantera Capit2026-09-02 03:28:12Pantera Founder Says U.S. Treasury Buyback Expansion BackfiredPantera Capital founder Dan Morehead said on Bloomberg Crypto that the U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond buyback plan backfired and that investors quickly saw through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move. Morehead pointed to the Treasury’s Aug. 19 decision to double buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation in an effort to lower borrowing costs. He argued the increase was small relative to the $2 trillion in bonds the Treasury must sell each year and said it exposed the scale of the debt problem. He also tied Bitcoin’s 26% August gain to the move and said crypto remains a macro trade that benefits when governments keep expanding debt. Morehead expects Bitcoin to resume climbing after the current pullback ends.950
US Treasuries2026-08-27 03:30:00Wall Street Watches Bessent’s Next Debt Move as Treasury’s November Refunding Plan Turns Into a Wild CardU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent shift toward a more active debt-management approach has unsettled one of the market’s longest-standing assumptions: that Treasury issuance remains regular and highly predictable. According to a Bloomberg report dated Aug. 26, attention has now moved to the Treasury’s Nov. 4 quarterly refunding announcement after officials unveiled a bond buyback plan that Bessent described as a "Treasury twist." For a $31 trillion Treasury market, strategists at Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and other Wall Street firms say the upcoming statement now carries an unusual degree of uncertainty. The core debate is no longer whether borrowing needs will rise, but how they will be distributed across the curve. Many on Wall Street expect the Treasury to signal that future increases in financing will lean more heavily on Treasury bills and shorter-dated notes, while buybacks could be expanded to ease pressure on long-term yields. Some banks have also started treating direct cuts to long-dated bond issuance as a rising risk scenario. Subtle wording changes in the Treasury’s latest guidance — referring to possible "changes" in future coupon and floating-rate note sales instead of "increases" — have added to that interpretation. Strategists are also debating whether larger buybacks would be only a bridge to broader maturity changes later in the year. Morgan Stanley said the Treasury General Account could provide $80 billion to $200 billion for buybacks, while Citi has pushed its forecast for larger auction sizes out to 2028 and raised the tail risk that 20-year Treasuries could eventually be removed. Even so, market participants warn that cutting long-end issuance outright would be difficult and could be seen by investors as market manipulation.620
Bitcoin2026-08-25 21:41:36Bitcoin Climbs 22% in a Week as Traders Price In Treasury Firepower Not Yet DeployedBitcoin has risen about 22% over the past seven days and was trading near $80,000 after briefly reaching the low $80,000s intraday. Much of the market has tied the move to talk of a $1 trillion Treasury liquidity injection, but the commitment on the table is narrower than that headline suggests. What the U.S. Treasury has actually announced is an increase in long-end bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, effective from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The larger purchases have not started yet. The roughly $1 trillion figure refers to the Treasury General Account, the government’s cash balance at the Federal Reserve, which stood at about $936 billion on Aug. 19. That money is available to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he chooses to use it, but it has not been transferred into markets. In the latest operation, dealers offered nearly $20 billion of bonds and the Treasury bought its full $2 billion limit. Unchained notes that the rally came before any expanded buyback had been carried out. The report also points to comments Bessent made on CNBC, where he said the operations could exceed $4 billion per issue, added that the Treasury has a large toolkit, and remarked, 「I have asymmetric information. What do I know that the market doesn’t know?」 CNBC later reported on Aug. 24 that officials were weighing the use of that cash balance.1060
Stanley Druck2026-08-25 07:33:13Druckenmiller says Treasury bond buybacks weaken market disciplineBillionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback plan, arguing that official intervention works against the market rather than with it. In his view, the program removes an important restraint on government borrowing and weakens fiscal accountability at a time when market pricing should be allowed to do its job. Druckenmiller also said markets remain the better judge of prices, suggesting that efforts to defend prices against underlying fundamentals tend not to hold over time. The comments were reported by CoinDesk on Aug. 25. The source summary did not provide additional details on the scale or timing of the buyback plan beyond Druckenmiller’s criticism of the intervention itself.1020
Stanley Druck2026-08-25 04:41:52Stanley Druckenmiller says Treasury buybacks risk muting the bond market’s fiscal warningInvestor Stanley Druckenmiller used a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published on Aug. 25 Beijing time to criticize the U.S. Treasury’s recent expansion of long-dated Treasury buybacks, arguing that the move may weaken the bond market’s ability to price U.S. fiscal risk. The criticism comes after long-end Treasury yields stayed elevated, with the 30-year yield previously touching its highest level in 19 years. On Aug. 19, the Treasury said it would raise the size of its 10-year to 30-year bond buyback operations from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, with the program set to run from Sept. 9 to Nov. 4. The department said the goal was to support liquidity in the long-end Treasury market. Druckenmiller argued that there had been no signs of failed auctions, disorderly trading, or forced deleveraging at the time, making the move look less like emergency market support and more like an attempt to push long-end yields lower. He said higher yields are themselves a warning signal about U.S. fiscal conditions, citing inflation above target, unemployment near full employment, a federal deficit around 6% of GDP, government debt above $40 trillion, and fast-rising net interest costs. BlockBeats also noted Druckenmiller’s ties to current Treasury Secretary Bessent and disclosed that his Duquesne family office recently reported a new stake in Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. (PURR), holding 2.9415 million shares worth about $23.15 million.1360
US Treasuries2026-08-24 22:52:00Bessent says Treasury buybacks have not started, offers no new signal on larger operationsU.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Aug. 25 that Treasury buybacks have not yet begun, pushing back on expectations that the department was ready to step up support for the long end of the bond market. Speaking at an "Economic D-Day" press conference, Bessent said the next operation is scheduled for Sept. 9 and noted that "we haven't bought a single bond yet" when asked whether buybacks could be expanded further. The remarks came after Bessent had previously announced a larger long-dated Treasury buyback plan following a surge in 30-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. Under the schedule already outlined, the minimum size of each buyback operation will rise from $2 billion to $4 billion between Sept. 9 and Nov. 4. His latest comments were seen as more restrained than earlier hints that purchases could exceed the newly set minimum. Bessent also addressed speculation that the Treasury might cut long-term bond issuance, saying issuance would proceed under the regular schedule. He suggested that any details on auction sizing would not be known until the next quarter's quarterly refunding announcement.1250
US Treasury2026-08-24 11:51:40US Treasury may tap TGA to fund expanded bond buyback planThe US Treasury may draw on the Treasury General Account, or TGA, which holds close to $1 trillion, to finance its recently expanded government bond purchase program, according to CNBC, citing two senior Treasury officials. The potential use of the account would give the department greater capacity to influence long-term bond yields and could alter how markets view the buyback strategy. Last week, the Treasury unexpectedly said it would raise repurchases of long-dated off-the-run securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the size of those operations could exceed the new minimum, though the department did not say at the time how it would pay for the purchases. Many market participants had expected the Treasury to fund the program by increasing issuance of short-term Treasury bills. If the TGA is used instead, that would mark a different funding route. The TGA is effectively the federal government's checking account at the Federal Reserve, with balances sourced from existing tax revenue.1240
